TA_Trader: Charts and Watchlists

3 GOLDEN Opportunities

2010-10-19T18:58:00.007-04:00

Gold pulled back BIG today (due to the strength of the dollar). If the trend continues the next few days, we could see an amazing opportunity to load up on the precious metal.

Below are 3 stocks I like in the coming days:

EGO

ANV

AZK

Why your Portfolio needs Gold and Silver

2010-08-24T20:11:00.001-04:00

Lets get this straight. I’m a big Peter Schiff/Ron Paul/Marc Faber/Jim Rogers fan, so if you don’t think we’re on the verge of a currency crisis, then you will disagree with much of what I am about to say. In fact, much of my information is from these sources.

Deflation/Inflation Debate

In 1971, Nixon ended the Gold Standard, which meant the dollar was no longer correlated to a specific amount of gold. From this point on, the U.S. was able to print money freely. By circulating more paper dollars, the value of the U.S. dollar has fallen consistently. This is OK in moderation, but the gigantic stimulus packages dished out since the Bush Administration in 2001 have helped create a false sense of financial security amongst individuals and corporations nationwide, while at the same time, decreasing the purchasing power of the dollar.

Remember, inflation is expansion of supply of money and credit and deflation is the contraction of supply of money and credit. Many people who feel we are in the midst of a deflationary period argue that because an astronomical amount of credit has been destroyed through defaults on mortgages and other loans, the value of the remaining dollars in circulation has increased. While this may be true, the amount of stimulus packages authorized by the Obama Administration is helping to offset this effect. We simply have not felt the effects of the printing of money yet, since the majority of stimulus has been given to the private sector, not the general public (like 2001). When the money begins circulating, it will increase the prices consumer goods.

With our national debt around $14 trillion, our government cannot raise interest rates because it will make the payments to our national debt too high, unless we DRASTICALLY decrease spending. Pretty much, we are not going to be able to pay off our national debt. The Chinese are beginning to realize this, as they have redeemed about $100 billion worth of treasuries in the past year.

Once inflation picks up speed and other countries follow China’s lead, the value of the dollar will plummet, which is why we need…..

Gold/Silver

These two precious metals have been associated with wealth for centuries. If countries are no longer going to use the dollar to back up their currencies, the prices gold and silver will skyrocket.

While ETFs like GLD are great for traders, long term investors should look at PHYS, GTU, CEF (60% gold 40% silver), and SGOL. These funds are actually backed with PHYSICAL gold. PHYS takes it one step further by actually allowing you to redeem your stock for ACTUAL gold. That’s right, you will pay a premium (about 10% right now), but they will actually ship you physical gold. The same fund (Sprott) will also be introducing a similar silver fund soon.

I am not trying to predict the collapse of the dollar and our economy, but you need to be protected if we do endure a period of hyperinflation. Investing in precious metals is essential not to “get rich”, but to simply protect your purchasing power.

Brian

Just one week ago...

2010-05-12T20:57:00.001-04:00

On Wednesday May 5th, the SPX closed at 1165.

Today, the SPX closed at 1171.

Pretty hard to believe that the all the drama since Thursday has resulted in a higher market (not necessarily healthier).

After the initial drop, many chartists (including myself) began to analyze resistance levels as to where a shortable bounce could occur. First it was 1050, then 1060, then 1070 (50 MA), and most recently, 1080. Well, the market continues to climb and the shorts continue to get squeezed. Volume may be questionable, but high or low, the market just climbed about 9% the past 5 days.

Common advice given to traders is to never try and “catch a falling knife”, as stocks many times fall much farther and faster than they rise. Attempting to read recent market activity can drive one crazy, as no one is able to truly gauge such short term moves consistently. My portfolio is down about 5% the past week not because my ideas weren’t good, but because my timing was wrong. Support/resistance indicators just aren’t as useful during these crazy volatile market conditions.

The smartest traders I know didn’t trade the past couple of weeks (besides scalps). They preserved their capital, and are still awaiting better opportunities. I don’t blog much, but my message is that you are never smarter than the market. The only thing that is clear about the current charts is that they offer no obvious advantage to the long or short side.

My feeling is that we will head lower from here, but it’s not about how I feel. It’s about exerting the discipline to await clearer market trends before designating a sizeable portion of your capital to equities. Good luck and keep scalping away!

Brian

Scanning for Setups

2010-04-25T09:18:00.001-04:00

I’ve been asked a few times HOW I find the chart setups I play, so here is my routine the night before each trading day.

I use the scanner on FINVIZ.com. This is a great free website that many traders here on Twitter use. I use the following parameters for my scans:

- Market Cap: over $300 million
- Average Volume: over 300k
- Price: under $30
- Over the 50 day ma (for long setups only, I remove this for short setups)

This will usually give me about 50 pages of charts, which translates into about 1,000 charts. Yes I scan 1,000 charts almost every night. Overkill? Probably…but there’s no scan that can replace the human eye, and it’s important to find the best setups to invest your hard-earned capital!

This scan will generate a bunch of garbage stocks. It just my personal style to not trade anything over 30 bucks. Small-mid caps bring the volatility to create huge gains (and losses).

When I find a chart I like in the scan, I’ll verify it checks out on the 2 year chart as well (don’t want any major resistance that I might have missed on the 9- month chart that FINVIZ.com uses). At this point, I set an alert on my trading software and I’m ready to go for the morning.

Hope this helps!

Brian

Setups for Week of April 26th

2010-04-25T08:50:00.003-04:00

Some AWESOME setups for this week.

Watchlist for Tuesday April 13th

2010-04-12T22:07:00.003-04:00

Well, bought some UTSI and ICO today and sold my KLIC.

LVLT over 1.77 is going to explode. This is my favorite play for tomorrow/rest of the week.

Also added ATML, DENN, and PACR.

Continue to watch BYD, IPG, and FNFG from yesterday's post.

Good luck!

Watchlist for Monday April 12th

2010-04-11T20:10:00.004-04:00

Sorry I haven't posted on the blog in a while. I always post the charts to chart.ly/twitter, but sometimes they don't make it to the blog. Anyway, heres what I'm looking at for tomorrow. Note: currently long KLIC

Setups for Week of February 16th

2010-02-16T00:58:00.002-05:00

Updated Long charts

2010-02-03T22:11:00.002-05:00

IMAX, KOG, ZION

Short Ideas for February 4th

2010-02-03T22:06:00.001-05:00

BCRD Short Opportunity for Friday Jan. 29th

2010-01-29T01:18:00.002-05:00

This could be a great short, plan to short from the open tomorrow with a stop above the moving averages. Check out the chart.

The Week of the Bounce (we hope!)

2010-01-24T23:44:00.003-05:00

The 5 charts above have all sold off, yet I expect them to recover (at least temporarily) this week. I plan to day trade all of these, as the market is too unstable right now to get comfortable in a long position. APWR and HPJ present the best opportunities to get long off of some nice support, IMO. GL

Charts and Ideas for week of January 19th

2010-01-17T16:59:00.002-05:00

Charts and Ideas for Friday Jan 15th

2010-01-14T22:09:00.002-05:00

Watchlist for Thursday January 14th

2010-01-13T20:50:00.004-05:00

Watchlist:

MHR Long on breakout over 2.24

ANO Long here at 1.41, stop loss at 1.31

FMBI Long on breakout over 12

MHR

2010-01-12T00:57:00.002-05:00

I try not to get excited about too many picks, but this one has me pumped. MHR recorded its second highest volume day EVER today. If it breaks out over 2.24, there is not overhead resistance until 4.37....crazy potential. Check out the chart.

ANX: Day trade only

2010-01-12T00:56:00.003-05:00

If you are sitting next to your computer, play ANX on a breakout over .50, this one could really fly....hey, 10 cents is a 20% gain!

Updated KOG chart

2010-01-12T00:54:00.002-05:00

KOG is ready, should breakout any day now

Watchlist for Monday January 11th

2010-01-10T19:25:00.002-05:00

PAG Long on breakout over 17.25
IMAX Long on breakout over 14.60
KOG Long on breakout over 2.66
RMIX Long on breakout over .95
MTL Long on breakout over 22.29
CMFO Long right here at 8.00

Disclaimer: No positions in any of the above stocks. The opinions expressed on this blog are for entertainment purposes only.

Put PAG and MFG on your watchlist

2010-01-07T21:15:00.003-05:00

CYCC to the moon!

2010-01-07T18:49:00.004-05:00

REFLECTION....

I did not trade a single share of CYCC today (unfortunately), but I think it is beneficial to think about "what I would have done" had I been watching the stock.

CYCC traded around 680,000 shares at 12.09 pm today on its initial break. That is about six times the normal DAILY volume before Dec. 10th in ONE MINUTE.

Combine this with the fact that you are dealing with a small cap biotech trading around a dollar, and you've got a lot to be excited about, no matter what the news is.

The buy and sell price points are a genuine prediction of how I believe I would have traded CYCC today.

I am not a sophisticated chartist. All I am doing is buying on a break of the previous high. Knowing when to buy is a lot easier than knowing when to sell.

KOG breakout, watch Thursday 1/7 for continuation

2010-01-06T21:26:00.000-05:00